By Mr ZhoHaq commenting on Siasat.pk
http://www.siasat.pk/forum/showthread.php?226072-Tonight-With-Moeed-Pirzada-27th-December-2013-Gen-Musharraf-s-Mistakes-after-9-11&highlight=27th+december
Its not that simple. I think Akbar Ahmed analyses of War on terror & tribal muslim society dynamics is brilliant.
Especially his insights into AQ and Yemini Assiri tribes. Really changes the way you see many things.
I hope he develops this more in time. Somalia ,Philippines ,W Turkistan, Anbar in Iraq & Caucases have similar tribal dynamics underlying the Islamic militancy. Would require alot of field research but this is ground breaking work.
(Incidentally US Army also tried to look at these insurgencies from a tribal/anthropological perspective in thier billion dollar Human Terrain programme, though their focus was misplaced. Some very interesting studies they have done in S Afghanistan, but thats another issue)
But on TTP he makes a few mistakes.
Have tribal institutions really collapsed? I think Answer is not straight forward.
First what are we talking about. Are we referring to the govt interface British colonialism created in tribal areas Curzon forward policy?
i.e Political agents, Maliks,religious etc. See that in case of Tribal areas was always a fragile & artificial system.
They were never an indigenous system & were always an ephemeral imposition.
Political agents since Independence have over years become of lower and lower quality.
The British PA was a part time anthropologist who had immersed himself in the tribal dynamics. He was fleunt in Pashto. Was stationed an average of 10 yrs. He was the most competent person available for the job in Indian Civil services.He knew all the power relationships in his area to a family.
Now a PA basically just sits to take a cut from various criminal mafias that have been allowed to take root in Tribal areas. Narcotic, Timber smugglers. Kidnapping gangs etc.
He isnt interested in his job & training is non existent. People pay crores of rupees to get the job because its so lucrative.
Turnover is quick as competition for this lucrative post is severe.
So I would say PA system was already rotten long before any Taliban arrived.
Tribal Maliks are not feudals. They are also not "leaders" of the tribes per se. Infact in case of Wazris and Mehsuds they have always been a butt of jokes. Thier situation isnt comparable to lets say Land owning feudal pirs in Punjab or Khan in Mardan Charsadda who actually wield power. They basically were ppl paid by govt a certain sum to maintain a channel of communication with tribes. If you see leadership in tribal areas Maliks never produced them in colonial period.
Its clear that these titles can be easily bestowed again if relative calm appears.
Tribal leadership is sort of a meritocracy. A certain combination of social intelligence, characteristics that appeal to tribal collective makes a person a leader.
(See history of all colonial era leaders from tribal areas Faqir of ipi, ) Whether you like it or not your Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Buhader even Hakeemullah are not that different from Anti british tribal leaders. Both Gul Buhader & Mullah Nazir were associated with Afghan Jihad. In their own ways brilliant tacticians & shrewd politically.
Most importantly they all worked towards protecting what they perceived as their tribal prestige & interests.
See important to note these insurgents groups (Haifz Gul Buhader & Mullah Nazir atleast) call them selves Taliban but are protecting the perceived interests of their respective Wazir subtribes. (Ahmed zai & Uthmanzai). So thats a reason they have remained pragmatic. They made deals with Pak Army to allow safe passage, they both expelled Uzbeks elements when they thought they were becoming a threat to their societies. Most ppl in that area of the respective tribes are supportive of these leaders. Other actions are similarly understandable they allowed Mehsud sanctuary (hamsaya status)in their areas to exert tribal control because they were seeing that TTP HM was becoming a threat to them & a disruptive force.They needed leverage.
At same time when they see no other option they will fight the Army. Their is simply no reason in their thinking of how this Army is any different then the Royal Indian Army that their grandfather fought. Stories they grew up hearing.Troops have same ethnicity at time same names of Battalians. Tactics are the same. And in a broad sense the idea to differentiate an Army conscripted by British colonials to protect their interest from that of Pakistan Army paid monthly from CSF to occupy Tribal areas as rear guard action for ISAF is difficult case to make.
Tribal mind isnt nuanced in these sort of arguments especially given their is a religious angle to this.
Another thing that cant be stopped in Tribes from taking part in hostilities over durand line. Its simply isnt feasible. Do you know 4 times in Afghan History Wazir & Mehsud tribesmen have taken part in Afghan revolts that have changed governments in Kabul? Afghan Law has historically has based on this long history always given then right to Afghan citizenship if they ever applied.
Afghanistan still has not recognized Durand line as an international boundary. Every attempt to wall & mine it has been resisted by them. Pakistan simply does not bear any reasonable responsibility any more, given similar attacks from Afghanistan have been routine.
A standing Army in Tribal areas will always be cause of disruption. Its simply not acceptable in their world view. What we see as routine and necessary for them is humiliating. This was Jinnah genius when he authorised pull back from tribal ares in Operation Curzon.
Tribes are by nature insular & would be more then happy to remain the same in their own ancestral homelands.
TTP Mehsuds is the group that bucks the trend. What happened was that when Pak Army did its assault it broke down Mehsud tribe tribal cohesiveness. 60-70% were made into IDP's in Tank DI khan. TTP Mehsud are in a state fo exile dirven out from their ancestral alnd in SWA. This means they wre especially disruptive as they have much less to loses & they are displacing other tribes from their own ancestral areas. Like Afridis in Tirah valley or Orakzais
TTP at that time to survive had to turn to Kashmir Jehad groups and AQ types.
This is where TTP Mehsud faction became a qualitatively different then the other two.
One way to look at this tribal dispossession is to look at them like to other tribal forces that were displaced from their ancestral lands. Like Scythians, Huns, Mongols, Mughuls. They have become a mobile Army that wants to create breathing space for it self so it can settle down.
This is the reason for their non pragmatism and lethalness.
Is this process reversible? I would suggest it is. If IDP are reintroduced back to their lands TTP Mehsudd faction will start returning to its tribal orbit. It will have to respond to tribal stresses. Mehsuds never let Punjabi militants or AQ to get the leadership position. They for most part used them to settle their tribal scores with Pakistan Army. Mehsuds historically have been in all tribes least pragmatic and hard to reconcile (read 1920 Mehsud campaign).
They way they will be contained is if they are compelled by other tribal forces around then (Be it influencial Haqqanis who represent Afghan Talibs or Gul Buhader & Mullah Nazir groups). For most part TTP Mehsud insurgency is winding down now. If govt acts with IDP rehabilitations & some three way agreement to settle TTP down it will be over in less then 6 months.
The reason this has gone on for this long is Pakistan leadership inability to understand the situation.
Its trapped by its own unfounded fears. A tibal force isnt going to one day take over Islamabad. The notion is beyond rediclous.
But it most certainly can turn tribal areas into a black hole of blood & treasure.
Pakistan planner paranoid fears of Tribal reas really do remind me of something I read recently.
Lala Har dayal was a prominent Hindu nationalist leader in the 1920's.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Har_Dayal
In 1925 he wrote to the publication Pratap (printed in Lahore)
"I declare that the future of the Hindu race, of Hindustan and of the Punjab, rests on these four pillars: (1) Hindu Sangathan, (2) Hindu Raj, (3) Shuddhi of Moslems, and (4) Conquest and Shuddhi of Afghanistan and the Frontiers. So long as the Hindu nation does not accomplish these four things, the safely of our children and great-grandchildren will be ever in danger, and the safety of the Hindu race will be impossible. The Hindu race has but one history, and its institutions are homogeneous. But the Musalmans and Christians are far removed from the confines of Hindustan, for their religions are alien and they love Persian, Arab and European institutions. Thus, just as one removes foreign matter from the eye, Shuddhi must be made of these two religions. Afghanistan and the hilly regions of the frontier were formerly part of India, but are at present under the domination of Islam. . . .Just as there is Hindu religion in Nepal, so there must be Hindu institutions in Afghanistan and the frontier territory; otherwise it is useless to win Swaraj. For mountain tribes are always warlike and hungry. If they become our enemies, the age of Nadirshah and Zamanshah will begin anew. At present English officers are protecting the frontiers; but it cannot always be. . . .If Hindus want to protect themselves, they must conquer Afghanistan and the frontiers and convert all the mountain tribes."
Pakistan current establishment fears vis a vis an existential threat from Tribal areas are similar to Lala Hardyal.
And are based on irrational fears. Shows a profound lack of wisdom
