The Solution

By Mr ZhoHaq commenting on Siasat.pk
http://www.siasat.pk/forum/showthread.php?226072-Tonight-With-Moeed-Pirzada-27th-December-2013-Gen-Musharraf-s-Mistakes-after-9-11&highlight=27th+december


Its not that simple. I think Akbar Ahmed analyses of War on terror & tribal muslim society dynamics is brilliant.

Especially his insights into AQ and Yemini Assiri tribes. Really changes the way you see many things.

I hope he develops this more in time. Somalia ,Philippines ,W Turkistan, Anbar in Iraq & Caucases have similar tribal dynamics underlying the Islamic militancy. Would require alot of field research but this is ground breaking work.

(Incidentally US Army also tried to look at these insurgencies from a tribal/anthropological perspective in thier billion dollar Human Terrain programme, though their focus was misplaced. Some very interesting studies they have done in S Afghanistan, but thats another issue)

But on TTP he makes a few mistakes. 
Have tribal institutions really collapsed? I think Answer is not straight forward. 

First what are we talking about. Are we referring to the govt interface British colonialism created in tribal areas Curzon forward policy?
i.e Political agents, Maliks,religious etc. See that in case of Tribal areas was always a fragile & artificial system.

They were never an indigenous system & were always an ephemeral imposition.

Political agents since Independence have over years become of lower and lower quality. 
The British PA was a part time anthropologist who had immersed himself in the tribal dynamics. He was fleunt in Pashto. Was stationed an average of 10 yrs. He was the most competent person available for the job in Indian Civil services.He knew all the power relationships in his area to a family.
Now a PA basically just sits to take a cut from various criminal mafias that have been allowed to take root in Tribal areas. Narcotic, Timber smugglers. Kidnapping gangs etc.

He isnt interested in his job & training is non existent. People pay crores of rupees to get the job because its so lucrative.
Turnover is quick as competition for this lucrative post is severe. 
So I would say PA system was already rotten long before any Taliban arrived.

Tribal Maliks are not feudals. They are also not "leaders" of the tribes per se. Infact in case of Wazris and Mehsuds they have always been a butt of jokes. Thier situation isnt comparable to lets say Land owning feudal pirs in Punjab or Khan in Mardan Charsadda who actually wield power. They basically were ppl paid by govt a certain sum to maintain a channel of communication with tribes. If you see leadership in tribal areas Maliks never produced them in colonial period.

Its clear that these titles can be easily bestowed again if relative calm appears.

Tribal leadership is sort of a meritocracy. A certain combination of social intelligence, characteristics that appeal to tribal collective makes a person a leader.
(See history of all colonial era leaders from tribal areas Faqir of ipi, ) Whether you like it or not your Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Buhader even Hakeemullah are not that different from Anti british tribal leaders. Both Gul Buhader & Mullah Nazir were associated with Afghan Jihad. In their own ways brilliant tacticians & shrewd politically.

Most importantly they all worked towards protecting what they perceived as their tribal prestige & interests.

See important to note these insurgents groups (Haifz Gul Buhader & Mullah Nazir atleast) call them selves Taliban but are protecting the perceived interests of their respective Wazir subtribes. (Ahmed zai & Uthmanzai). So thats a reason they have remained pragmatic. They made deals with Pak Army to allow safe passage, they both expelled Uzbeks elements when they thought they were becoming a threat to their societies. Most ppl in that area of the respective tribes are supportive of these leaders. Other actions are similarly understandable they allowed Mehsud sanctuary (hamsaya status)in their areas to exert tribal control because they were seeing that TTP HM was becoming a threat to them & a disruptive force.They needed leverage.

At same time when they see no other option they will fight the Army. Their is simply no reason in their thinking of how this Army is any different then the Royal Indian Army that their grandfather fought. Stories they grew up hearing.Troops have same ethnicity at time same names of Battalians. Tactics are the same. And in a broad sense the idea to differentiate an Army conscripted by British colonials to protect their interest from that of Pakistan Army paid monthly from CSF to occupy Tribal areas as rear guard action for ISAF is difficult case to make.

Tribal mind isnt nuanced in these sort of arguments especially given their is a religious angle to this.

Another thing that cant be stopped in Tribes from taking part in hostilities over durand line. Its simply isnt feasible. Do you know 4 times in Afghan History Wazir & Mehsud tribesmen have taken part in Afghan revolts that have changed governments in Kabul? Afghan Law has historically has based on this long history always given then right to Afghan citizenship if they ever applied.

Afghanistan still has not recognized Durand line as an international boundary. Every attempt to wall & mine it has been resisted by them. Pakistan simply does not bear any reasonable responsibility any more, given similar attacks from Afghanistan have been routine.

A standing Army in Tribal areas will always be cause of disruption. Its simply not acceptable in their world view. What we see as routine and necessary for them is humiliating. This was Jinnah genius when he authorised pull back from tribal ares in Operation Curzon.

Tribes are by nature insular & would be more then happy to remain the same in their own ancestral homelands.

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TTP Mehsuds is the group that bucks the trend. What happened was that when Pak Army did its assault it broke down Mehsud tribe tribal cohesiveness. 60-70% were made into IDP's in Tank DI khan. TTP Mehsud are in a state fo exile dirven out from their ancestral alnd in SWA. This means they wre especially disruptive as they have much less to loses & they are displacing other tribes from their own ancestral areas. Like Afridis in Tirah valley or Orakzais
TTP at that time to survive had to turn to Kashmir Jehad groups and AQ types. 
This is where TTP Mehsud faction became a qualitatively different then the other two. 

One way to look at this tribal dispossession is to look at them like to other tribal forces that were displaced from their ancestral lands. Like Scythians, Huns, Mongols, Mughuls. They have become a mobile Army that wants to create breathing space for it self so it can settle down.
This is the reason for their non pragmatism and lethalness.

Is this process reversible? I would suggest it is. If IDP are reintroduced back to their lands TTP Mehsudd faction will start returning to its tribal orbit. It will have to respond to tribal stresses. Mehsuds never let Punjabi militants or AQ to get the leadership position. They for most part used them to settle their tribal scores with Pakistan Army. Mehsuds historically have been in all tribes least pragmatic and hard to reconcile (read 1920 Mehsud campaign).

They way they will be contained is if they are compelled by other tribal forces around then (Be it influencial Haqqanis who represent Afghan Talibs or Gul Buhader & Mullah Nazir groups). For most part TTP Mehsud insurgency is winding down now. If govt acts with IDP rehabilitations & some three way agreement to settle TTP down it will be over in less then 6 months.

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The reason this has gone on for this long is Pakistan leadership inability to understand the situation.
Its trapped by its own unfounded fears. A tibal force isnt going to one day take over Islamabad. The notion is beyond rediclous.
But it most certainly can turn tribal areas into a black hole of blood & treasure. 


Pakistan planner paranoid fears of Tribal reas really do remind me of something I read recently.

Lala Har dayal was a prominent Hindu nationalist leader in the 1920's. 
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Har_Dayal

In 1925 he wrote to the publication Pratap (printed in Lahore)

"I declare that the future of the Hindu race, of Hindustan and of the Punjab, rests on these four pillars: (1) Hindu Sangathan, (2) Hindu Raj, (3) Shuddhi of Moslems, and (4) Conquest and Shuddhi of Afghanistan and the Frontiers. So long as the Hindu nation does not accomplish these four things, the safely of our children and great-grandchildren will be ever in danger, and the safety of the Hindu race will be impossible. The Hindu race has but one history, and its institutions are homogeneous. But the Musalmans and Christians are far removed from the confines of Hindustan, for their religions are alien and they love Persian, Arab and European institutions. Thus, just as one removes foreign matter from the eye, Shuddhi must be made of these two religions. Afghanistan and the hilly regions of the frontier were formerly part of India, but are at present under the domination of Islam. . . .Just as there is Hindu religion in Nepal, so there must be Hindu institutions in Afghanistan and the frontier territory; otherwise it is useless to win Swaraj. For mountain tribes are always warlike and hungry. If they become our enemies, the age of Nadirshah and Zamanshah will begin anew. At present English officers are protecting the frontiers; but it cannot always be. . . .If Hindus want to protect themselves, they must conquer Afghanistan and the frontiers and convert all the mountain tribes."

Pakistan current establishment fears vis a vis an existential threat from Tribal areas are similar to Lala Hardyal. 
And are based on irrational fears. Shows a profound lack of wisdom

Mr. Jinnah: The Making of Pakistan

1) In 1940 Pakistan was a maximum demand, for greater autonomy of muslim majority states within India.
2) In 1946 the acceptance of Cabinet Mission plan by Mr. Jinnah, was another.   

Mohammad Ali Jinnah as ‘The Hindu’ saw him (An Obituary)

Mohammad Ali Jinnah as ‘The Hindu’ saw him

The Hindu'At his bitterest he never forgot that firm friendship between India and Pakistan was indispensable' Photo: The Hindu Archives

In the light of the controversy generated by Jaswant Singh’s book, 'Jinnah: India-Partition-Independence' (Rupa & Co., New Delhi, 669 pages), we reproduce The Hindu ’s editorial of September 13, 1948 titled ‘Mr. Jinnah .’ It was published two days after the death of the founder of Pakistan.

The news of the sudden death of Mr. Jinnah will be received with widespread regret in this country. Till barely a twelvemonth ago he was, next to Gandhiji, the most powerful leader in undivided India. And not only among his fellow-Muslims but among members of all communities there was great admiration for his sterling personal qualities even while the goal which he pursued with increasing fanaticism was deplored. For more than half the period of nearly forty years in which he was a towering figure in our public life he identified himself so completely with the struggle that the Indian National Congress carried on for freedom that he came to be as nearly a popular idol as it was possible for a man so aristocratic and aloof by temperament to be. During the last years of his life, as the architect of Pakistan, he achieved a unique authority in his own community by virtue of the blind allegiance which the mass, dazzled by his political triumphs, gave him though the sane and sober elements of the community became more and more doubtful of the wisdom of his policies. In an age which saw centuries-old empires crumble this Bombay lawyer began late in life to dream of founding a new Empire; in an era of rampant secularism this Muslim, who had never been known to be very austere in his religion, began to dally with the notion that that Empire should be an Islamic State. And the dream became a reality overnight, and perhaps no man was more surprised at his success than Mr. Jinnah himself.

Mr. Jinnah was an astute lawyer. And his success was largely due to the fact that he was quick to seize the tactical implications of any development. His strength lay not in any firm body of general principle, any deeply cogitated philosophy of life, but in throwing all his tremendous powers of tenacity, strategy and dialectical skill into a cause which had been nursed by others and shaped in many of its most important phases by external factors. In this he offers a marked contrast to the Mahatma with whom rested the initiative during the thirty years he dominated Indian political life and who, however much he might adapt himself to the thrusts of circumstance, was able to maintain on a long range a remarkable consistency. Pakistan began with Iqbal as a poetic fancy. Rahmat Ali and his English allies at Cambridge provided it with ideology and dogma. Britain’s Divide and Rule diplomacy over a period of half a century was driving blindly towards this goal. What Mr. Jinnah did was to build up a political organisation, out of the moribund Muslim League, which gave coherence to the inchoate longings of the mass by yoking it to the realisation of the doctrinaires’ dream. Two world wars within a generation, bringing in their train a vast proliferation of nation-States as well as the decay of established Imperialisms and the rise of the Totalitarian Idea, were as much responsible for the emergence of Pakistan as the aggressive communalism to which Mr. Jinnah gave point and direction.

We must not forget that Mr. Jinnah began his political life as a child of the Enlightenment the seeds of which were planted in India by the statesmen of Victorian England. He stood for parliamentary democracy after the British pattern and with a conscientious care practised the art of debate in which he attained a formidable proficiency. At the time of the Minto-Morley Reforms, he set his face sternly against the British attempts to entice the Muslims away from their allegiance to the Congress. For long he kept aloof from the Muslim League. And when at last he joined it his aim was to utilise it for promoting amity between the two communities and not for widening the gulf. But Mr. Jinnah was a man of ambition. He had a very high opinion of his own abilities and the success, professional and political, that had come to him early in life, seemed fully to justify it. It irked him to play second fiddle. The Congress in those early days was dominated by mighty personalities, Dadabhai Nowroji, Mehta and Gokhale, not to mention leaders of the Left like Tilak. That no doubt accounts for the fact that Mr. Jinnah gradually withdrew from the Congress organisation and cast about for materials wherewith to build a separate platform for himself. At this time the first World War broke out and the idea of self-determination was in the air. It was not a mere accident that Mr. Jinnah came to formulate the safeguards which he deemed necessary for the Muslim minority in his famous Fourteen Points so reminiscent of the Wilsonian formula.

But in those days he would have pooh-poohed the idea of the Muslim community cutting itself off from the rest of India. He was so little in sympathy with the Ali Brothers’ Khilafat campaign because it seemed to him to play with fire. He was deeply suspicious of the unrestrained passions of the mob and he was too good a student of history not to realise that once the dormant fires of fanaticism were stoked there was no knowing where it might end. He kept aloof from the Congress at the same time. Satyagraha with its jail-going and other hardships could not appeal to a hedonist like him; but the main reason for his avoiding the Gandhian Congress was the same nervousness about the consequences of rousing mass enthusiasm. The result was that he went into political hibernation for some years. But he remained keenly observant; and the dynamic energy generated by a successful policy of mass contact deeply impressed him. He came to see that a backward community like the Muslims could be roused to action only by an appeal, simplified almost to the point of crudeness, to what touched it most deeply, its religious faith. And a close study of the arts by which the European dictators, Mussolini, Hitler and a host of lesser men rose to power led him to perfect a technique of propaganda and mass instigation to which ‘atrocity’-mongering was central. But Mr. Jinnah could not have been entirely happy over the Frankenstein monster that he had invoked, especially when the stark horrors of the Punjab issued with all the inevitability of Attic tragedy from the contention and strife that he had sown. He was a prudent man to whom by nature and training anarchy was repellant. At the first Round Table Conference he took a lone stand in favour of a unitary Government for India because he felt that Federation in a country made up of such diverse elements would strengthen fissiparous tendencies. It was an irony that such a man should have become the instrument of a policy which, by imposing an unnatural division on a country meant by Nature to be one, has started a fatal course the end of which no man may foresee. Mr. Jinnah was too weak to withstand the momentum of the forces that he had helped to unleash. And the megalomania which unfortunately he came to develop would hardly allow him to admit that he was wrong.

Mr. Jinnah has passed away at the peak of his earthly career. He is sure of his place in history. But during the last months of his life he must have been visited by anxious thoughts about the future of the State which he had carved. Pakistan has many able men who may be expected to devote themselves with wholehearted zeal to its service according to their lights. And India will wish them well in a task of extraordinary difficulty. But it is no easy thing to don the mantle of the Quaid-i-Azam. No other Pakistani has anything like the international stature that Mr. Jinnah had achieved; and assuredly none else has that unquestioned authority with the masses. The freedom that Pakistan has won, largely as the result of a century of unremitting effort by India’s noblest sons, is yet to be consolidated. It is a task that calls for the highest qualities of statesmanship. Many are the teething troubles of the infant State. Apart from the refugee problem, which is Britain’s parting gift to both parts of distracted India, the Pakistan Government has by its handling of the Kashmir question and its unfortunate attitude towards the Indian Union’s difficulties with Hyderabad, raised in an acute form the future of the relations between Pakistan and India. Mr. Jinnah at his bitterest never forgot that firm friendship between the two States was not only feasible but indispensable if freedom was to be no Dead-Sea apple. It is earnestly to be hoped that the leaders of Pakistan will strive to be true to that ideal.

Eureka!

Die Deautsche nationalmanschafft huete 4-0 Argintenien..

Danke!

ideas unleashed ..some blog ideas that i wanted to scribble down before amnesia strikes ...and i am left scratching my scalp ...

I am not a good satirist anymore.... i need to get over it , really!

idea numro uno ... Prematurely From the Hindsight: The need to have Asif Zardari and Pervaiz Musharraf alive and well - going about their business : a living general and the unepitomisable democratic regime of the feudals..

idea numro dos: Effective marketing campaign for PTI's viability before the general elections.

Add campaigns on local cable tv - lambasting the opposition candidates and their party heads ..

- glorifying khans message , the hospital - cricket - timelined political stances on Azad Adaliya - corruotion of PLMN and PPP. Vision on Education, Overhauling of Tax System and Revenue Collection, Poverty allevation, Role of Overseas Pakistanis, and re binding of the fabric of the Federation- tackling the disenfranchisement of the Baluchis, the Pakhtoons the tribals and the Sindhis. All Ads one running after the other.

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"Will the General be Relaunched - The Rebuttal "

Ayesha Ijaz Khan,

"Will the General be Relaunched" the very idea has to be taken with a pinch of salt; make that a lot of salt now that the Supreme Court of the land of the pure is in the foray. The article is nevertheless an articulate presentation on how the political scenario has transpired over the last 10 years - and the effects the events have had on the state of mind of an average Pakistani during this period.

Dear Ayesha ,

Allow me to put on the gloves now:

I would however like to refute an assertion you made in the piece: I am one of the expat Pakistanis; Canadian to be exact - and represent the expats whose political mindset you aptly attempt to read in your piece.

I've been here in Canada for the past 8 years having left home at 17 . I am now a 25 yr old employed man with an engineering degree and a house mortgage . So in effect I am no different than the thousands of others across North America and Europe making their comfortable and cozy living abroad.

Having said that, I sure hope that I havent come across a political zealot or nut job of any political figure or party. I do hold my independent political views of our country and as you will see have done my share to attain those views. However within the parameters of those views I believe that you are being uttery obtuse by bracketing Imran Khan with with Pervez Musharraf. Even referring the former as a fringe politician.

Imran Khan is anything but a fringe politician and I can only support this claim from a first hand experience - an anecdotal one:

In March of this year I had a calling - an awakening of sorts - and I decided to use my annual vacation - significant because you allude to its "waste" by us expats - to make a journey to Pakistan to be in the eye of the storm. Being single n all, I packed my bags and decided to join the long march. I am not a politician nor a heir of one: just an average joe, who deeply craved political activism, a movement, a revolution, orange-purple whatever; anything which would forward and highlight public display of political awareness a- and luckily there stood a noble cause - a lawyers movement - reaching its climax - something so very unprecedented in the history of this nation or any third world country for that matter.

On Friday the 13th in the heyday of Rehman Maliks crackdown on the Longmarch. , I backpacked from Lahore ( my hometwon) to Islamabad to be in the midst of everything - They told me at the Lhr Railyway Station - this was supposedly the last train to Islamabad - for the next 4 days. As it so very often happens on trains - I met people.
A group of 4 - ISFers they called themselves - shared the adjacent bunkers. I saw a familiar face in one of them : he said his name was Hasaan Khan Niazi, Imran Khans college bunking nephew.

We have brought along table cloths , we'll wet them before we hit the streets. we are hoping our Islamabad chapter can arrange hockey sticks to kick the tear gas shells back to the police. We' gotta make sure we dont repeat the mistakes of the last Long March eh
Islamabad is a spacious city you know. The "Chairman" is gonna be close by most likely Pindi - he'll be there at 3pm on the 16th dont you worry--- Once on Shaharaye-Dastoor if thre is lathi charge you can easily escape in different directions - towards the margalla hills or the woods, but hopefully it wont come to that. They wont let us sit and protest and light candles at night. Rehman Malik is a coward - no matter how many containers he sets up we'll be there.

I am a first yr Arts student at LUMS - my name is Osama Khawar. He said that with Bolsheviks flare. He was reading Trochsky. You know what the fundamental problem with the communist idea was?
No , I said.
It lacks a value system. A submissive force largely holding the moral character of the governing class - something which can mutuality cause moral equilibrium between the governing and the governed.

I wonder if a fusion of a submissive code - like religion or Islam for instance and the marxist idea - would work.
You see Bhutto's idea of Islamic socialism ......


Ayesha, the followers for the supporters of the two camps which are vastly different in demographic and nature. the four days I spent in a hideout in Islamabad amongst the youth and student members of Imran Khans party changed my perception on the future of politics of Pakistan. Words simply wont do justice nor would an emotional overflow to convert one into a believer - only the experience of political activism - and the camaraderie of it can.

Perhaps todays article in Pak Tribune by Dr. Ghayur Ayub "Youth as a Political Force" can highlight the impact Imran Khan is having on the youth of Pakistan and the significance of stirring up this force.


Coming back to Long March. the group i was with included LUMS students, some of whom i initially thought i could converse with more easily than others, but mostly , students from a variety of backgrounds , from government colleges in central punjab to drop outs in primary and secondary school.

What i saw left me completely mystified. The political maturity in the average youth in that camp was dynamite. From admonishing me on composition and checks and balance of of govt between the Judicial - Executive - Legislative bodies to the mismanagement of nations resources by the legislators under the pretext of development plus the three tier education system in Pakistan ... they knew it all...

Upon first look You would dismiss these kids as a waste of talent gone down the drain. But they aren't. These kids have been glued to tv set to decide and judge for themselves the people who have been responsible for the state of affairs.... the media
Even if my optimism is adventurous and miscalculated and these were the very select few amongst millions - it still gives me hope that they saw a leader and a visionary in a person and were inspired make a journey to risk their lives make a journey to stand up against the. This i know i know in the heart of my heart, they simply would not have done that for a fringe politician